The effects of hand2 knock-down on the zebrafish embryonic development

PDF(1578 KB)

Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences ›› 2008, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (3) : 325-0.

论著

The effects of hand2 knock-down on the zebrafish embryonic development

LI Jian1, 2 CHEN Li-li3 CHEN Shu-zhen3 ZHAO Nai-qing4 QIAN Xu1△

Author information +

History +

Abstract

Objective To explore the feasibility for application of time series ARIMA model to predicting the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region so as to provide the theoretical basis for continuing to reduce the MMR. Methods ARIMA model was established based on the monthly MMR of Guangxi from 2002 to 2006. The parameters of model were estimated through unconditional least squares method, the structure was determined according to criteria of residual un-correlation and concision, and the goodness-of-fit of model was determined through Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz Bayesian Criterion (BSC). The constructed optimal model was applied to predict the MMR in 2007 of Guangxi and evaluate the validity of model through comparing the difference of predicted MMR and actual MMR. The MMR in 2008 was predicted by ARIMA model based on the MMR from 2002 to 2007. Results Model ARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,1)12 could preferably fit the time series of MMR with both autoregressive coefficient (AR1=-0.708, AR2=-0.537) and seasonal moving average coefficient (SMA1=0.511) being statistically significant (P<0.05). AIC and BIC were 33.814 and 39.364 respectively and predicting error was white noise (P>0.05). The mathematic function was (1+0.708B)(1+0.537B2)(1-B) (1-B12) Zt =(1-0.511 B12) t . The predicted MMR in 2007 was consistent with the actual MMR with the relative error of 2.08% .The predicted MMR in 2008
based on the MMR from 2002 to 2007 would be 21.232 per 100 thousand. Conclusion ARIMA model can be used to fit the changes of MMR and to forecast the future MMR. It is a predicted model of high prediction precision for short-time forecast.

Key words

hand2 / zebrafish / embryonic development / morpholino oligonucleotides

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

LI Jian; CHEN Li-li CHEN Shu-zhen ZHAO Nai-qing QIAN Xu△ . Study of the feasibility for application of ARIMA model to predict maternal mortality ratio in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J]. Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences, 2008, 35(3): 325-0

PDF(1578 KB)

Accesses

Citation

Detail

Sections

Recommended

Abstract
Key words
Cite this article

Received	Revised	Published
1900-01-01	1900-01-01	2008-05-20
Issue Date
2013-11-29

Please choose a citation manager

Content to export

Abstract

Key words

Cite this article

{{custom_sec.title}}

{{custom_sec.title}}

{{custom_fnGroup.title_en}}

Footnotes

模态框（Modal）标题

Please choose a citation manager

Content to export

Abstract

Key words

Cite this article

{{custom_sec.title}}

{{custom_sec.title}}

{{custom_fnGroup.title_en}}

Footnotes